Friday, April 22, 2011

Rainbow Six - How Huge?

The question buzzing on chat boards with regards to the weekend is: "How big will the Rainbow Six pool be tomorrow if it carry's over"?

If you read the racing press, a conservative estimate of $2M has been floating around of late, for the mandatory payout. I think this might be way low. I have a sneaky feeling that this bet will be played like few other carryovers of this size we have ever seen.

Reasoning?
  •  First is the obvious, the carryover and mandatory payout. 
  • People have taken a poke at this for the entire meet, and many have cashed and liked playing it for a small amount
  • $2 pick sixes scare people off; "the syndicates win and I can't". 10 centers can attract more players and more dollars. As Dan puts it "three horses in each leg is less than half a tank of gas"
  • GP is a top track. This is not like the Beulah carryover.
  • Holiday weekend!
  • Huge fields and a couple of weak ML chalk. This gives one hope it can still pay. 
  • The buzz is out there already.

Players have been pleading for tracks to give them a reason to play; to get excited. Although many think it's too late, I do not think it is. 0% pick 4's through Twinspires at various tracks, the Calder 12% pick 5, the USTA's strategic wagering with seeded pools, including little Northfield slashing rakes, Woodbine's $100k pick 4 guarantee each Saturday. By themselves they will not "fix" racing, but if we add them up, keep doing it, and keep listening to players, buzz can build.

This doesn't mean I support all tracks doing a Rainbow six because I do not; breaking players with an all-out evil rake for three months and giving them a one day mandatory reprieve is a gimmick, not a vision for growth. But it does build some buzz, and if tweaked (e.g. sold as a lotto bet to John Q Public), it's a good thing.

If my premise is right, I think we see a monster pool tomorrow at GP. I'm already handicapping and I figure you are too.

No comments:

Most Trafficked, Last 12 Months

Similar

Carryovers Provide Big Reach and an Immediate Return

Sinking marketing money directly into the horseplayer by seeding pools is effective, in both theory and practice In Ontario and elsewher...